Corona: Is the 7-day incidence still meaningful?

But if the data is so distorted and incomplete, what are you telling us anyway? Long story short: Incidence tells us everything – and nothing – about the coronavirus.

As the incidence increases, the incidence increases

First of all, the individual reports show a long-term trend over time. So, well, if incidence goes up, incidence goes up. And that’s not even trivial.

Ultimately, a close look is crucial. Dirk Brockmann, physicist at Humboldt University in Berlin and head of the RKI working group “Epidemiological Modeling of Infectious Diseases” says: “In particular, the dynamics of incidence are still essential to assess changes and see where the journey is going.” If the numbers were to increase, it would mean that the incidence of infection would increase again. “And you can get information from that.”

Experience also shows that rising incidences and reports about them make society aware that the pandemic is not over, they lead to Discussions at political level about the right protective measures and, together with key figures such as the vaccination and recovery rate as well as variant-specific findings on the severity of the disease and treatment options, allow forecasts for the expected burden on the healthcare system.

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